Month: August 2013

To be sure, in a perfect world, I could probably dream up a

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Fitch Affirms UkrLandFarming at ‘CCC’

(Repeat for additional subscribers)

July 1 (Reuters) (The following statement was released by the rating agency)

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ukraine based UkrLandFarming PLC (ULF) Long term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at Fitch has also affirmed the company Long term local currency IDR at with Negative Outlook. A full list of rating actions is available below.

ULF foreign currency IDR is constrained by Ukraine Country Celling of The local currency IDR reflects political and economic uncertainty in Ukraine, which may ultimately threaten ULF financial flexibility and thus its ability to meet its debt obligations. They also reflect the company exposure to upcoming refinancing risks and expected negative impact from hryvna devaluation on the company operating performance, mainly its controlled subsidiary Avangardco (local currency IDR

KEY RATING DRIVERS Liquidity in Focus

At FYE13, ULF had a large amount (USD404m) of short term debt. Although uk moncler sale ULF had USD297m of cash (adjusted to USD163m of what Fitch considers when deducting cash needed for operational purposes and deposits in related party banks) and USD108m moncler sale outlet of undrawn credit facilities, its weak liquidity profile is a key rating factor given the weakened economy and political discount moncler jackets turmoil in Ukraine so far in 2014.

Following ULF successful rollover of a large portion best moncler jackets of its loans due in 2014, moncler outlet linked site cheap moncler we currently assess the group liquidity as adequate. This reflects ULF access to liquid inventories to fund the new harvesting season at the beginning of the moncler sale online year, together with our expectation of still healthy operating cash flows moncler outlet woodbury in 2014. Liquidity issues will remain in focus as long as the current difficult operating and financial environment moncler outlet store persists. Large debt repayments coming due in 2015 and continued economic instability in the country are fully captured in the current ratings and Outlook. High dependence on USD denominated debt (77% of 2013 total debt) is cheap moncler jackets womens partially mitigated by significant export sales and USD linked prices of grain sold domestically.

Lower Revenue and FFO Expected

Following the steep hryvna devaluation so far in 2014 we expect a significant decline in the group USD denominated revenues and funds from operations (FFO), as most of non farming revenue is generated domestically in local currency (including Avangardco egg products sold domestically). The operating margin is likely to be under pressure as a large part of costs, moncler womens jackets especially in non farming segments, are USD linked (feed, fertilisers, fuel, seeds). However, this will be partially mitigated by higher grain prices expected for 2014 and lower UAH denominated costs. Still, we expect FFO will be sufficient to finance capex needs and enable modest positive free cash flow (FCF). This should strengthen over time if profit margins remain steady and capex requirements partly uk moncler outlet abate.

Leverage to remain Adequate

Although ULF generates about 25% of its sales in hard currencies, a substantial amount of USD based debt, combined with expected lower operating cash flows, will result cheap moncler sale in weaker projected credit metrics for the next three years. We expect cheap moncler jackets mens FFO adjusted leverage to increase closer to 3x in 2014, from 2.3x in 2013, before the company modestly deleverages. However, leverage remains low for the current ratings and relative to the group closest peers in Ukraine.

Less Ambitious Growth moncler outlet online Plans

ULF has been expanding rapidly, both through acquisitions and greenfield projects, resulting in a stronger business profile. After having incurred a record USD847m capex in 2013 (41% of revenues), ULF plans to substantially reduce capex in 2014, given the political and economic instability in the country. We expect ULF scale to provide increased bargaining power as well as economies of scale over time. Although its subsidiary Avangardco has pursued stronger standards in corporate governance and information transparency as a publicly listed entity, corporate governance issues remain for ULF. These include man risk as well as a moncler outlet prices lack of independent directors and of compensation and audit committees on the board of directors. These corporate governance issues moncler online store do not currently affect the ratings but could do so over the long term if cheap moncler jackets they persist. Strong Profile excluding Avangardco

Although ULF consolidates its 77.5% ownership in listed Avangardco, the parent does not have direct recourse to Avangardco reported USD157m cash balance as of end 2013, except by way of dividends which we expect will be paid in 2014 and, subject to economic conditions, next year. Fitch expects ULF stand alone FFO adjusted gross leverage calculated by deconsolidating Avangardco but including a dividend inflow to ULF in line with Avangardco announced dividend policy to reach 3.3x in 2014 and remain steady. Likewise, we project FFO fixed charge cover will remain at a minimum of 2.3x. These credit metrics are in line with the current ratings.

RATING SENSITIVITIES Positive: Future developments that could lead to positive rating moncler sale actions on the Long term local currency IDR include:

Improvement of ULF corporate governance practices, particularly in its transactions with related party banks

ULF maintaining a FFO margin above 30% (FYE13: 31.2%), its ability to generate positive FCF and its expansion plan being funded mainly by internal cash flows leading to consolidated FFO adjusted gross leverage moncler uk outlet below 3x, all on a sustained basis

An upgrade of the foreign currency IDR would be contingent on Ukraine Country Ceiling moncler usa being upgraded.

Negative: Future developments that could lead to negative moncler outlet sale rating action on the Long term local currency IDR include:

Liquidity shortage caused cheap moncler coats mens by limited available bank financing of working capital investments or by refinancing at more onerous terms than expected

A contraction of FFO below USD300m (FYE13: USD645.6m)

An increase in consolidated FFO adjusted gross leverage to 3.5x on a sustained basis (or 4.0x de consolidating Avangardco).

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